Jelena Ostapenko vs Madison Keys Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

Wojtek Kolan

Our Predictions

H2H Records Career Stats

HEAD TO HEAD
J. Ostapenko vs M. Keys

Jelena Ostapenko

LAT

2

Win

Played

4

Win

Age

1.77m

Height

1.78m

C. Rank

Best Rank

Total Titles

YTD Titles

$11.7M

Career Money

$20.8M

Right-handed (two-handed backhand)

Plays

Right-handed (two-handed backhand)

Madison Keys

USA

2

Win

Played

4

Win

Age

1.77m

Height

1.78m

C. Rank

Best Rank

Total Titles

YTD Titles

$11.7M

Career Money

$20.8M

Right-handed (two-handed backhand)

Plays

Right-handed (two-handed backhand)

Head-to-head: Ostapenko 2 - 4 Keys

They have played 13 sets in total, with Jelena Ostapenko winning 5 and Madison Keys winning 8. The last match between Madison Keys and Jelena Ostapenko was at the Adelaide International - Adelaide, 08-01-2025, Round: R2, Surface: Hard, with Madison Keys getting the victory 3-6 6-4 6-3.

Players	Head To Head Match Wins
Ostapenko	2
Keys	4

Last 6 H2H Matches:

(R2) Adelaide International - Adelaide(01-08-25)

Stats

Madison Keys

Jelena Ostapenko

(R1) Qatar TotalEnergies Open - Doha(02-14-23)

Stats

Jelena Ostapenko

Madison Keys

(R2) Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati(08-17-22)

Stats

Madison Keys

Jelena Ostapenko

J. Ostapenko vs M. Keys H2H Profile

J. Ostapenko	Stats	M. Keys
$11,743,067	Career Prize Money	$20,819,148
61.23% (409-259)	Career Total W/L	64.47% (421-232)
0	Clay	1
1	Grass	1
1	Hard	2
16	Titles	14
2	Total H2H Matches	4
47.37% (18-20)	YTD Win/Loss	74.00% (37-13)
1	YTD Titles	2

J. Ostapenko vs M. Keys Match Preview:

Second serve performance recent form: In recent form (last 6 months), Jelena Ostapenko has won 38.09% of points on their second serve, while Madison Keys has won 41.30%. There is a high correlation between this stat and match prediction accuracy.
Return game stats recent form: Return stats show Jelena Ostapenko, in recent form, has won 50.90% of their opponent's second serve points, while Madison Keys has won 49.15%. The same stats for first serve returns are 32.03% and 30.42% respectively and this has a high correlation to pick who is favored in this H2H matchup.
Under pressure analysis: Jelena Ostapenko has saved 42.42% of breakpoints in recent form, whereas Madison Keys has saved 56.51% which is a useful statistic for in-game betting predictions.
Performance overview: Over the last year Jelena Ostapenko has won 47.37% of matches played (W/L 18/20), with Madison Keys winning 74.00% (W/L 37/13) that gives us an overall head-to head prediction overview.
Best surface: Jelena Ostapenko has their best career surface win % on Grass, winning 68% (W/L 54/26), and worse career win % on Hard, winning 54% (W/L 145/125). Madison Keys has their best career surface win % on Grass, winning 68% (W/L 54/22), and worse career win % on I.hard, winning 53% (W/L 17/15).
Player level: In the last year, Jelena Ostapenko has played most of their matches on the Masters series, winning 41.18% of matches (W/L 7/10), where as Madison Keys has played most of their matches on the Masters series, winning 70.00% of matches (W/L 14/6). When comparing stats between players to predict the favorite, it is of course all relative to the event level they have been playing at.
Direct H2H matches: They have played 6 times before with Jelena Ostapenko winning 1 times and Madison Keys being victorious 4 times. They have played 13 sets in total, with Jelena Ostapenko winning 5 and Madison Keys winning 8.
The last match between Jelena Ostapenko and Madison Keys was at the Adelaide International - Adelaide, 08-01-2025, Round: R2, Surface: Hard, with Madison Keys getting the victory 3-6 6-4 6-3.
Head to head match duration: In past head to head matches, the average match time between these players has been 1:31:8.
Opponent quality stats: Over the last 12 months, Jelena Ostapenko has played against opponents with an average rank of 58.76 while Madison Keys has played against players with an average rank of 47.46.
Deciding set performance vs all players: If you are interested in live predictions and betting, if this match goes into a deciding set, Jelena Ostapenko has won 64% of deciding sets over the last 12 months, while Madison Keys has won 75% in all matches played on tour.
Break point conversion: In recent form, Jelena Ostapenko has converted 48.09% of breakpoint opportunities, and Madison Keys has converted 36.84% of their chances to break their opponents serve. A telling stat for in-game live betting tips when either player has a breakpoint opportunity.

Jelena Ostapenko vs Madison Keys Editorial Preview By TennisTipster88.

J. Ostapenko vs M. Keys H2H Stats Used In Our Predictions

J. Ostapenko	Stats	M. Keys
1	H2H Matches Won	4
5	Sets Won	8
61	Games Won	69
17	Aces (Total)	28
34	Total Double Faults	12
1:31:8	Average Match Time	1:31:8
57% (257/448)	1st Serve %	64% (282/438)
65% (166/257)	1st Serve Win %	66% (185/282)
44% (84/191)	2nd Serve Win %	46% (72/156)
47% (20/43)	Break Pts Won %	41% (24/59)
41% (181/438)	Return Points Win %	44% (198/448)
20% (1/5)	Best‑of‑3 Win %	80% (4/5)
0% (0/2)	Deciding Set Win %	100% (2/2)
50% (2/4)	1st Set Won, Won Match	100% (2/2)
50% (2/4)	1st Set Won, Lost Match	0% (0/2)
0% (0/2)	1st Set Lost, Won Match	50% (2/4)

Recent Performance Stats

J. Ostapenko Recent Matches Played

OPPONENT	RESULT	SCORE	H2H
Wuhan Open - Wuhan - 06-10-2025
R1 Sorana CirsteaS. Cirstea	L	6-0 2-1 ret.	Stats
China Open - Beijing - 22-09-2025
R2 Priscilla HonP. Hon	L	6-3 6-2	Stats
Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara - 08-09-2025
R2 Marina StakusicM. Stakusic	L	6-4 6-7(6) 6-2	Stats
U.S. Open - New York - 25-08-2025
R2 Taylor TownsendT. Townsend	L	7-5 6-1	Stats
R1 Xiyu WangX. Wang	W	6-4 6-3	Stats

View All

M. Keys Recent Matches Played

OPPONENT	RESULT	SCORE	H2H
U.S. Open - New York - 25-08-2025
R1 Renata ZarazuaR. Zarazua	L	6-7(10) 7-6(3) 7-5	Stats
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati - 04-08-2025
R4 Elena RybakinaE. Rybakina	L	6-7(3) 6-4 6-2	Stats
R3 Aoi ItoA. Ito	W	6-4 6-0	Stats
R2 Eva LysE. Lys	W	1-6 6-3 7-6(1)	Stats
Omnium Banque Nationale - Montreal - 28-07-2025
QF Clara TausonC. Tauson	L	6-1 6-4	Stats

View All

J. Ostapenko vs M. Keys Stats Breakdown Vs All H2H Opponents

J. Ostapenko	Stats	M. Keys
61.23% (409/259)	YTD Win/Loss	64.47% (421/232)
57.77% (900/658)	Sets Win/Loss	62.39% (934/563)
53.38% (7632/6665)	Games Win/Loss	54.70% (7680/6361)
53.70% (145/125)	Hard Win/Loss	64.12% (252/141)
66.86% (117/58)	Clay Win/Loss	64.47% (98/54)
65.03% (93/50)	Indoor Hard W/L	53.13% (17/15)
67.50% (54/26)	Grass Win/Loss	71.05% (54/22)
0.24	Aces Per Game	0.42
1647	Aces Total	2887
0.43	Double Faults Per Game	0.2
3031	Total Double Faults	1397
1:13:48	Average Match Time	1:19:25
370.98	Average Opponent Rank	348.96
56% (20945/37471)	1st Serve %	63% (25438/40308)
65% (13671/20945)	1st Serve Win %	69% (17455/25438)
43% (7174/16512)	2nd Serve Win %	48% (7145/14853)
49% (2313/4708)	Break Points Won % (Total)	44% (2116/4827)
46% (17077/37028)	Return Points Win %	43% (18047/41504)
61.39% (62/39)	Slam W/L	70.86% (124/51)
52.38% (88/80)	Masters W/L	56.31% (116/90)
58.06% (18/13)	Cups W/L	44.44% (4/5)
60.17% (139/92)	Main Tour W/L	66.32% (126/64)
66.25% (53/27)	Challenger W/L	64.91% (37/20)
85.96% (49/8)	Futures W/L	87.50% (14/2)
61% (399/653)	Best of 3 Sets Win %	65% (417/641)
40% (2/5)	Best of 5 Sets Win %	25% (1/4)
57% (76/134)	Tiebreaks Win % (Total)	58% (102/177)
61% (139/227)	Deciding Set Win %	53% (104/196)
86% (387/333)	1st Set Won, Won Match	87% (425/369)
14% (387/54)	1st Set Won, Lost Match	13% (425/55)
26% (281/74)	1st Set Lost, Won Match	22% (228/51)